Third, China can reap tangible economic benefits from an aggressive climate change program. Given China’s role as a global center of manufacturing and innovation, getting on the 1.5% pathway quickly will help enable other countries to more easily reach carbon neutrality. If it were to continue on its current course, a 1.5☌ global target would require a reduction of 95% to 115% by 2050 by the rest of the world, putting global targets out of reach. The rest of the world needs China to succeed, since it accounts for more than 20% of annual global emissions. The country’s emissions growth has been relatively stable since 2013 (after years of rising at about an 8% annual rate), but under business as usual, it will only reduce carbon emissions by a little more than 10% by 2050. (See Slide 1 in the slideshow.) By itself, this is an enormous challenge. It must adopt, starting immediately, a 1.5☌ pathway to carbon reduction of 75% to 85% by 2050. First, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it needs to mount a concerted effort throughout its economy. We focus primarily on the 1.5☌ goal in this article and the accompanying slideshow.Ī few things are clear about China’s new ambition. For each of the scenarios, we identified a package of technological, regulatory, and other levers and quantify their impact and required investment. As a backup, we also modeled how to achieve a 2☌ target, a considerably less ambitious goal. We modeled how China can achieve a 1.5☌ target, in line with President Xi’s announcement. We also engaged leading research institutes and stakeholder companies during the work on this study. Thanks to this collaboration, BCG had access to local emission data and experts, from which we were able to build our simulation of China’s climate change pathways. Here are the details.ĭuring the period when the Chinese government was updating its climate agenda, BCG worked closely with China’s Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission-the most authoritative government think tank on climate topics-on a new analysis of the country’s emissions. We also believe it has economically attractive and socially viable avenues to achieve its decarbonization goals. We believe that it is, and we base our belief on an in-depth simulation of China’s climate change pathways that relied on unprecedented access to local emission data and experts. In the weeks following the announcement, Japan and Korea committed to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) goals, putting additional pressure on other large carbon emitters to follow suit.īut is China’s new target achievable? Reaching carbon neutrality requires massive reductions in emissions in the country’s relatively carbon-heavy economy and means eliminating many more metric tons of CO 2 than many other countries. In addition, China is setting an example for others. And the health, quality of life, and well-being of its people are strongly linked with reducing emissions and pollution, securing greater crop yields, avoiding natural disasters, and increasing energy independence.įor the world, since China is the single biggest annual carbon emitter, its commitment moves the international community closer to achieving the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to below 2☌ (something that would be all but impossible if it were to continue business as usual). China’s decarbonization initiatives provide major opportunities to accelerate technology innovation and industrial upgrading, further strengthening its economy. Following through will put it in a leadership position among major countries. President Xi’s pledge aligns China with a global target of limiting global warming to 1.5☌ over this period.įor China, the new goal reflects several ambitions. There was good news for China and for the global fight against climate change in September, when President Xi Jinping committed his country to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 at the UN General Assembly. Technology, Media, and Telecommunications.
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